Sunday, April 08, 2007

Baseball Time

Ah Baseball season is here again. While I was home the last time my brother pointed me to a group that follows baseball in a different way. I was aware of the "statistics nuts" that were constantly referenced during baseball games commentary and other people complaining about "How many bases Ricky Henderson stole during night games while up by more than 4 or more runs during Passover ?" But some of the things are actually quite interesting, especially if you are just a bit mathematically inclined or want more to emerse yourself in everything baseball.

I was also a bit disappointed when one the OSX Dashboard Widgets I used during last year's baseball season to watch and follow all the teams I care about, yes there are three, stopped working. So I decided to make a widget of my own to replace the broken one. One of the things I added to my version was the determination of Win Probability and graphing that during the game. Here are some pics:
The score, count and bases are all there, just like the previous widget, but I added the pitcher, batter on the right and the team which is currently at bat. Finally there is a gauge which tells you probability of the home team of winning.
If you double click on the widget, it expands and shows the graph of win probability for each batter that is up for the entire game. If you run the mouse over one of those little red or black boxes, it will tell you the play that made the win probability change in a little box. And there is also a back so you can select the game you want and change the "importance" of the play to display those little play boxes.


esavage13 said...

Must you use the game the A's lost and the one that I was attending? sheesh!

Since widgets are just little webpages, can I try to use it somewhere?

j-panda said...

Oh my gosh. So super-fun. This alone may be what pushes me over the edge into 10.4! For now lunch at DanRose's across the street from my office will have to keep me updated during the day.

BerryLookingForward to OpeningNight@Home Jo said...

My thoughts exactly, Eric!!! The fan graphs pages ARE interesting, but I am not too sure I know how to interpret all that data and the graphs. I need a tutorial b/c I am too brain lazy to try and figure it out for myself!!

I, too, am thinking about going and getting 10.4 - but for a completely different reason!

esavage13 said...

I feel so behind the times. I am only on 2.6.19-rc3.

b said...

Couple of Things.

None of the teams I follow won the day before I wrote this and there would have been hell to pay if I had shown the New York score.

Yes, Eric. You are behind the times. 10.4 is better than 2.6.19.rc45q-beta18.

Fangraphs: Just think probability of the home team winning. It depends on what bases are filled, outs, and score difference. Other than that, if you team is Home then the closer the number is to 100, then the happier you are. :)